"AXIS OF EVIL"

January 30, 2002

Experts analyze the president's warning to nations harboring terrorists and its potential impact on the U.S. war on terrorism.

RAY SUAREZ: Jim Woolsey, give us an idea of when a president announces a policy like this or makes a statement of principle like this, what is going on behind the scenes?

Is the heat turned up in Central Intelligence where you worked, at the heads of services as they begin to look at the map of the world and figure out what is where and what can be do done?

JAMES WOOLSEY: Well, I think there's no secret that there seems to have been a debate between the administration between those who would have delayed action against say Iraq for a long time and the argument being you need to clean up absolutely everything else first around various other arguments and those who believe as I think the president said time is not on our side with respect to weapons of mass destruction and terror sponsored by terror case at least two of three of these states and we may need to move more promptly.

I don't see there's only one problem here. It's not just the tens of thousands or 100,000 or whatever they are al-Qaida members in dozens of countries. We need to move on those with our allies and others.

But that doesn't mean that we can take life easy with respect to the threats that are continually posed by Saddam's regime in particular. I think that it's important for us to make preparations with countries in the area-- particularly Turkey-- with movement of US forces into the region, stockpiling smart weapons, doing those things that we would need to do if the president decides to move particularly against Iraq.

"Axis of evil"

RAY SUAREZ: Bill Maynes, by lumping these three countries together as an axis of evil, rhetorical or otherwise, do you lose some of the daylight in between them?

Are they different from each other and would they respond to different approaches when you finally get down to moving against what the American government finds offensive about these regimes?

CHARLES WILLIAM MAYNES: Already because Iran and Iraq feel that they might be in the cross hairs they are getting closer together.

There's been a visit by the Iraqi foreign minister. Both sides have shut down the activities of the resistance groups inside each country that was acting against the other. They have exchanged -- they have begun to exchange some prisoners of war. There's a warming in the relationship. I suspect that if they feel they are in danger of imminent attack; that will be even greater.

I think one of the problems of waging a war against Iraq in the foreseeable future, it's not an ethical question; it's a prudential question. The chief of staff of Turkey has spoken out against it. The head of intelligence in Saudi Arabia has spoken out against it. The reason is that very few people in the region believe that this is a policy that would serve their interest.

And that is something that the United States, if it wants to do this, is going to have to turn around.

RAY SUAREZ: James Woolsey, America pushing Iran and Iran into each other's arms?.

JAMES WOOLSEY: I think those trends are relatively superficial.

I think the terrorist end of the spectrum -- Iraq and Iran and Sudan and al-Qaida -- a number of these countries have been cooperating off and on for some time. Now I think the important thing is it that there is a difference between these countries.

North Korea doesn't really any longer -- although it once did -- pose a terrorist threat -- possess weapons of mass destruction threat. Iran is a country where there is some hope, because of its constitution because of massive student demonstrations against the mullahs.

There's a possibility that perhaps a shove here and there Iran might turn away what the mullahs that run of power instruments of the state.

The point is that with respect to Iraq there's no hope. Iraq is like Nazi Germany. It is not going to throw up an Iraqi Gorbachev. The system is a system essentially of government by torture and murder and rape, and the poor Iraqi people have been governed this way for decades. I think we would be more popular anywhere in the world than we would be in the streets of Baghdad if we deposed the Iraqi regime just as we have become very popular in the streets of Kabul.

RAY SUAREZ: What about Bill Maynes' other point, which is that very few people in the neighborhood seemed to be ready to stand behind the behind United States if it moves in that direction?

JAMES WOOLSEY: I think that Turkey would be able to be persuaded if we get it the right incentives, and it is the country I would admit that we need.

But most of other countries and after all --outside Israel and Turkey --that the Mideast is populated mainly by vulnerable autocrats and pathological predators -- and the vulnerable autocrats express fear of the pathological predators and they say, "oh, please, don't mess with Saddam and listen to us, Saddam, hear us say this? We're telling the Americans not to mess with you."

But if we succeed -- and I think if we decided to do it we would succeed-- in deposing the Iraqi regime and bring a far more decent regime and system of government to power in our Iraq throughout the Middle East and especially in Iraq itself we would be among the most popular people in the world.